Trump Trial

Well, it looks like we're due for another onslaught of historic days. 😵‍💫

The trial regarding Trump's alleged hush money payments is finally drawing to a close, and the jury has begun its deliberations. So, here are my predictions about the possible futures ahead of us!

Trump is Acquitted

Likelihood: Effectively 0%.

In this timeline, the Jury finds Trump "Not Guilty" on all charges. Therefore, Trump is declared innocent, and he cannot be tried on this matter again. Case closed.

Obviously, Trump's opponents will be dismayed by this outcome, and I think it's very likely that we'll see nationwide protests. Additionally, Trump will assert that this validates all of his claims about "hoaxes" and "witch hunts", which will electrify his base. Consequently, Trump will almost certainly win the presidential election later this year.

Based upon the factual evidence presented in the case, I believe this outcome is extremely unlikely.

Trump is Convicted of a Misdemeanor

Likelihood: 30%

Based upon the paper trail alone, it's pretty clear that campaign finance violations occurred. In New York, these violations would be a misdemeanor by default.

The prosecution has argued that these violations were in furtherance of a conspiracy to influence the 2016 election, which would elevate the violations to a felony. Still, they need to convince the jury of this beyond a reasonable doubt. Trump and his crew are masters of misdirection and distortion, so it's certainly possible that they can manufacture some doubt.

(OH SNAP -- apparently, the Jury has reached a verdict moments ago, so now we're just waiting for the verdict to be read in court. So, I'll try to wrap up this post quickly!)

I think this is probably the most peaceful outcome. Trump's opponents will feel like Trump was held accountable for something, even if it wasn't exactly what they were looking for. Likewise, Trump's supporters will just be glad that Trump got through the trial with only a few scratches. Ultimately, I don't think this outcome would have any impact on the upcoming election whatsoever.

Trump is Convicted of a Felony

(Well, the verdicts were read before I had a chance to finish writing this post. Shockingly, he was convicted on all 34 counts 🙀. Anyway, I'll finish writing this post as if I didn't already know this.)

Likelihood: 5%

This timeline is similar to the previous one, except the Jury cannot conjure up any reasonable doubt. Therefore, Trump is convicted on felony charges.

As soon as the verdict is announced, I suspect that Trump's opponents will erupt into celebration. I mean, this is exactly what happened after Biden was declared the winner of the 2020 election.

Meanwhile, Trump's MAGA base will be wailing-and-gnashing-of-teeth furious. Trump and all of his sycophants will immediately flood the airwaves with claims about "deep state conspiracies" and "corruption", and his devotees will chant these words like prayers. There's a very good chance that we'll see violent protests in the hours and days following the verdict. I don't think retribution killings are out of the question, either. Trump has already twisted his most devout followers into believing that he was chosen by God, and thus anyone who opposes him is a spawn of Satan. The spilling of blood is justified if it's in the name of the Lord (Donald Trump), right? 😵‍💫

Still, the conviction might be enough to shock some of Trump's supporters back to reality. As a result, I think it would improve Biden's chances of winning the election very slightly.

I've been following the trial fairly closely, and the prosecution's case is a lot stronger than I expected. Still, the defense is doing everything it can to distract the Jury and convince them that the entire case hinges upon Michael Cohen's testimony. If the defense pulls this off, then they will have concocted "reasonable doubt" by pointing to Michael Cohen's previous lies. Unfortunately, the last 8 years have shown us that it is very easy to confuse and mislead people; therefore, I think it's very likely that the defense will be successful in these efforts.

(FYI: I biked past the White House and National Mall shortly after the "guilty" verdict was delivered, and there was literally no celebration whatsoever. It just seemed like a typical Thursday. Trump and his sycophants have already started crying "corruption!", but so far I have not heard any news about protests, violent or otherwise. So, hopefully my prediction won't come true!)

(FYI: It's 10:00 PM, and "Civil War" is trending on Twitter. So, there's that.)

Mistrial due to a Hung Jury

Likelihood: 65%

In this timeline, the Jury cannot reach a consensus. The court would declare a mistrial, and therefore they would schedule a new trial with a new jury.

BUT: Trump will immediately jump onto social media and declare "total exoneration!!!". The rest of his sycophants will immediately parrot this same message, and pretty soon the entire voter base of the GOP will believe it. Then, of course, the GOP will cry foul when the new trial is scheduled. They'll claim that it's "a violation of double jeopardy", and that it's "evidence of a weaponized government", and blah blah blah.

Once again, I think this will create religious mania that will reenergize his base. Therefore, there's a good chance that Trump will win the election in this timeline as well.

If this was any other trial, then I would only give this outcome a 5% likelihood. However, the public discourse was already contaminated long before the trial even began. Many MAGA devotees have stated that they would declare Trump "Not Guilty" no matter what because it would disrupt the plans of some fictitious "Deep State". So, if even one of these fanatics managed to get onto the Jury, then the entire trial would be doomed from the start.

There are 12 people on the Jury. Can the Trial manage to dodge a bullet 12 times?

(Miraculously, it managed to do exactly that! Hooray! 🥳)